Credit Lens: Europe & Beyond

EP 16 | CLO Market Dynamics, European Credit Trends, and Regulatory Shifts

Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon open (00:00:05) with a look at how European CLO issuance has held its ground through a turbulent macro backdrop, from last year's tariff shock to the Iran war and ongoing ceasefire uncertainty. With roughly 70 active CLO managers, 19 more in the new manager pipeline and north of 150 registered warehouses, the structural demand picture is clear: there are far more CLOs chasing leveraged loans than there are leveraged loans to fill them.
Victoria Thiele, Senior CLO Reporter at Octus, joins (00:02:00) to break down what that imbalance actually means for deal economics. She covers the arbitrage squeeze from the repricing wave (00:05:00), the captive equity shift redefining how managers absorb liability pressure and the maturity wall building toward 2028 (00:10:30), when an estimated 57 billion euros of leveraged loans will need to refinance. She also takes a contrarian position on the private credit vs BSL debate (00:07:30): the conversation has largely moved on, and the emergence of middle market CLOs in Europe is quietly proving why. With north of 150 warehouses open (00:08:30) and a nine-month ramp from warehouse to deal, strong issuance is locked in well into 2027.
The hosts turn to the primary market (00:13:30), where April high-yield issuance hit 17.6 billion euros, up sharply from 6.4 billion in March. Spreads are tightening through syndication on single B paper. Opportunistic structures, including dividend recaps on names with adjusted EBITDA, are getting done. JP Morgan's head of EMEA leverage finance tells the Octus primary team the gap between market conditions and real-world fundamentals is "stunning." The window is open, and issuers are using it.
The episode closes with updates on two ongoing situations. AirBaltic (00:23:00) has unwound its remaining 10% fuel hedge, is now fully exposed to aviation fuel prices and needs an estimated 200 to 300 million euros to remain viable. Latvia's Prime Minister has resigned over an unrelated matter, complicating the state aid picture with the European Commission still to rule. On MFS (00:28:00), administrators have found Aston Martins, Range Rovers and 1.3 billion euros unaccounted for. HSBC has disclosed a $400 million fraud-related charge and Barclays has taken £228 million in direct losses. Connor Lovell Senior Legal Reporter at Octus continues to cover both stories on the Octus platform.
 

EP 15 | Creditors in the Driver's Seat

This week on Credit Lens Europe and Beyond, Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon unpack the inaugural EMEA Restructuring Outcomes Report from Octus. The headline across 30 large-cap deals: amend-and-extend is losing its grip. Debt-for-equity swaps now make up half of all transactions, creditors walked away with the keys in over 40% of deals, and original sponsors were wiped out or diluted to irrelevance in 10 of 15 debt-for-equity cases.
Ardagh is the centrepiece (02:08), with senior unsecured noteholders taking 92.5% of the equity and Paul Coulson and other legacy shareholders sharing a $300 million exit via Yeoman Capital. New money is now nearly mandatory (25 of 30 deals). The lone holdout: Altice France, where Patrick Drahi held onto 55% on the back of loose docs.
Then (06:05), creditor-on-creditor violence goes mainstream in Europe. Selecta's Hobson's Choice, Lowell's debt-to-securitization uptier, and Kloeckner Pentaplast's Chapter 11 dash for a DIP roll-up all show Europe borrowing from the American playbook. On venue (10:59), the Part 26A trilogy of Thames Water, Petrofac, and Adler has dented UK confidence, while France and the US keep pulling large mandates.
Then something different (16:09). Chris Haffenden sits down with Fiona Huntriss of Pallas Partners on s.901C(4) of the Companies Act 2006. Not cramming creditors down, but cramming them out. Fiona acted on the only case where it has ever been deployed, the second restructuring plan for Smile Telecoms in 2022, and walks through why even then the courts trod carefully. With Waldorf now raising its spectre (19:48), her read is that it remains a draconian tool but its profile is rising fast in live negotiations.
Afternoon Tea (24:23): a Florida family suing NASA after 1.6 pounds of space debris crashed through their roof. Then (26:04) Katie's in the hot seat for Identify the ReFi: a French retailer still wrestling with a chunky 2027 TLB, and a European satellite operator that raised €1.5 billion to retire 2029 and 2027 paper. 

EP 14 | INEOS Chemical Reckoning, and Air Baltic Tailspin

Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon open with European chemicals giant INEOS Group, where geopolitical chaos has created an unexpected windfall. What began as Middle East conflict disrupting global supply chains has turned into a potential EBITDA doubling opportunity for Sir Jim Ratcliffe's petrochemical empire. Daniel Avis, Primary Reporter at Octus, joins (01:17) to discuss how INEOS's ethane cracker advantage and North Sea oil access position the company as a clear winner while Asian competitors declare force majeure.
From there (10:27), the hosts pivot to Latvian state backed carrier Air Baltic, facing a liquidity crunch that has sent its bonds from near par to the 40s in just three months. The airline's shocking revelation, only 10% hedging on 2026 jet fuel compared to Ryanair's 80%, has left investors questioning management strategy as European fuel prices hit all time highs. S&P's recent downgrade signals distressed restructuring as "all but inevitable" without immediate intervention.
This episode's unofficial cultural sponsor, Jonathan the 192 year old tortoise (18:23), makes his crypto debut through an alleged meme coin scam. The tongue in cheek tribute highlights market manipulation tactics before Phoebe and Katie transition to "Identify the Refi," featuring French care home operator Clarion's 500 million euro refinancing and Swiss specialty chemicals firm Arxada's rejected amendment proposal.
The show closes with afternoon tea (18:00), where tortoise resurrection metaphors meet bond refinancing reality. The hosts celebrate successful guessing games and preview upcoming liquidity walls across European distressed credits.

EP 13 | MFS Turmoil, Gulf War Impact, and Market Disruption

Credit Lens hosts Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon open with the unfolding MFS situation, where what began as routine market positioning has escalated into significant operational challenges. The fund faces mounting pressure from regulatory scrutiny, liquidity concerns, and investor redemption requests. Connor Lovell, Senior Legal Reporter here at Octus joins (05:30) to discuss MFS's current predicament, market positioning strategies, and the broader implications for mutual fund operations in today's volatile environment.
From there (18:45), Phoebe and Katie shift focus to Gulf region developments and the ongoing conflict's ripple effects across global credit markets. Rising energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical uncertainty have created a complex web of market pressures. Regional banking institutions report increased volatility in commodity-linked securities, while energy sector credits face heightened scrutiny from institutional investors.
The conversation moves to broader market implications (28:20), examining how geopolitical tensions translate into credit risk assessments. The hosts analyze recent downgrades in transportation and logistics sectors, discuss emerging opportunities in defensive credit positions, and debate whether current market dislocations represent temporary volatility or structural shifts in global credit allocation.
The episode closes (35:15) with a discussion of investor positioning strategies amid uncertainty. Phoebe and Katie explore how institutional players are adjusting portfolios, the role of credit derivatives in risk management, and emerging trends in distressed debt markets as geopolitical factors continue reshaping investment landscapes.

EP 12 | SaaS Apocalypse, Tullow's Turnaround, and Polymarket Predictions

Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon return for their first Credit Lens Europe and Beyond episode of 2026, diving into the software sector selloff that has investors questioning whether AI will render traditional SaaS companies obsolete. The hosts examine how artificial intelligence capabilities are challenging subscription software models, with the tech software ETF IGV down 24% since January. Katie explains the "rule of 40" metric and why private credit markets, particularly U.S. Business Development Companies, are feeling the pressure from software sector exposure representing 16% of the $1.5 trillion loan market.
From there (08:28), the conversation shifts to Ghana-focused upstream oil company Tullow Oil's successful debt restructuring. What began as an anticipated court battle ended with overwhelming bondholder support at 90% consent for their $1.285 billion senior secured notes due May 2026. Wayne Jambao, Octus analyst, joins to discuss the "turbocharged amend and extend" deal that increases the coupon from 10.25% to 15% while extending maturity to 2028, though most payments will be payment-in-kind, potentially growing the debt stack from $1.685 billion to nearly $1.9 billion by maturity.
The episode's unofficial sponsor, Polymarket prediction betting, makes its case (15:18). The hosts explore the wild west of prediction markets where thousands place bets on future outcomes, from oil prices hitting $90 by June to Taylor Swift's wedding occurring before June 30th. The segment highlights ethical concerns about insider information advantages and regulatory restrictions across European jurisdictions.
 

EP 11 | APAC Capital Glut, Lowell’s Liability Reset, and Hong Kong Real Estate Risk

In this episode of Credit Lens: Europe & Beyond, Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon begin with a wide-angle look at regional credit conditions (00:54), before welcoming Chaim Estulin, Head of APAC Editorial at Octus (01:30).
The discussion opens with the core imbalance shaping Asian markets today: too much capital chasing too few compelling opportunities (01:42). Despite global volatility, spreads remain tight, particularly in high yield and private credit. The conversation then turns to China’s property sector (04:03), where repeated restructurings continue without a true underlying market stabilization.
From there, the focus shifts to Hong Kong (06:19), where commercial real estate leverage is becoming increasingly difficult to manage, and to India (07:35), where private credit growth remains strong but returns are compressing as local funds dominate deal flow. Indonesia follows (10:03), with political shifts raising questions about foreign capital appetite and dollar issuance.
Before closing the APAC segment, the team explores two broader forces: U.S. rate policy and its ripple effects (12:36), and the potential financing wave tied to data centers and GPU infrastructure across Southeast Asia.
The episode then pivots to Europe (15:18), where Lowell has taken another step in its capital structure reset. With layered securitization, £2.5 billion in total debt exposure, and a new £200 million facility tied to lock-ups and restructuring milestones, the case highlights the increasing complexity of modern liability management exercises and the lender politics that will shape its outcome.
Finally, in Afternoon Tea (22:21), the hosts cover the EU’s new AI regulatory framework, advances in MRI-guided tumor treatment in Australia, infrastructure innovation in Peru, a public health milestone in Fiji, and the debate surrounding longevity drugs for pets.
The episode closes with reflections on the year ahead (27:12).

EP 10 | Petrofac’s Administration, Kloeckner Pentaplast’s Texas Pre-Pack, and Great British Railways

Phoebe Appenteng opens at and Katie McMahon sets the Update Corner format at (00:08). Petrofac begins at (00:52): a once solid engineering group tries to buy time under Part 26A, then loses the anchor TenneT contract and tips into High Court administration. The segment covers expected recoveries, dissenting creditors, and whether Saipem and Samsung benefit.
Kloeckner Pentaplast starts at (08:34): the German plastics group chooses a pre packaged Chapter 11 in the Southern District of Texas, cutting about €1.3B of funded debt with approximately €215M in DIP financing and a lenders take keys outcome. Why Chapter 11 over domestic tools, who is advising, and how quickly they can emerge.Great British Railways begins at (12:26): legislation lands and the consolidation starts. The early focus is digital, merging fourteen operator apps into a single GBR platform, creating a retail unit, and drafting a Code of Practice to protect third party retailers.
AI in Retail starts at (15:41): Currys holds roughly three quarters of UK AI laptop sales, Apple Intelligence launches in the UK, and the story moves from hype to hardware. The credit angle is demand, margins, and financing models for higher priced devices.
Afternoon Tea lands at (19:32): arrests in the Louvre jewel heist with melted gold fragments recovered and one piece still missing. Close at (22:40) with credits and subscribe.

EP 09 | Merlin’s Debt Rollercoaster and Ukraine’s Corporate Resilience

Merlin Entertainments might be best known for Legoland and Madame Tussauds, but at 00:00:17, the magic starts to fade. Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon unpack how a 2027 refinancing, falling EBITDA, and a triple C downgrade have turned the world’s second-largest theme park group into a test of financial creativity. By 00:06:55, the sale of Lego Discovery Centres to part-owner Kirkbi raises questions about whether the move was strategic or simply a lifeline.
At 00:07:04, Octus Senior Editor Magnus Scherman joins from Kyiv to discuss how Ukrainian companies are staying solvent through the war. From Ukrainian Railways to Metinvest, he explains how these businesses have continued servicing debt while managing destroyed assets, governance challenges, and limited funding options. By 00:12:01, he details the sudden firing and reinstatement of Ukraine Agro’s management team and what it means for investor confidence.
By 00:15:00, the focus shifts to Metinvest’s struggle to rebuild after losing key mines and paying large dividends during wartime. Phoebe, Katie, and Magnus explore what resilience looks like when every balance sheet reflects both survival and strategy.
At 00:20:09, the team closes with a quick round of Guess the Credit, covering everything from First Brands’ bankruptcy to France’s political upheaval and the rise of private credit money chasing higher yields. By 00:25:27, they wrap with a look ahead to the Octus London Credit Forum on October 23 and a reminder that even in quieter markets, credit never stands still.
Hosts: Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahonGuest: Magnus SchermanProducer: Tanya HubbardNetwork: Octus Podcast Network

EP 08 | Intralot, Tullow, and the Rapid-Fire Reality of Europe’s Credit Markets

Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon open with Intralot’s groundbreaking return to the primary markets, four years after executing Europe’s first aggressive liability management exercise. What began as a distressed Greek gaming company has transformed into a case study in creditor-led restructuring tactics. Nikhil Varsani, Financial Analyst at Octus, joins (02:28) to dissect how Intralot’s 2021 drop-down transaction cracked open Europe’s LME playbook and why its recent debt issuance signals broader market evolution.
From there (13:06), the conversation shifts to Tullow Oil’s mounting liquidity pressures. Once Ghana’s crown-jewel asset, the Africa-focused oil company now faces €1.285 billion in 2026 maturities with dwindling options. Recent asset disposals in Kenya and Gabon provide temporary relief, but with Jubilee Field valuations plummeting from $2.8 billion to $1.6 billion, refinancing talks grow increasingly complex. The hosts examine whether management can engineer another successful refinancing or if an amend and extend becomes inevitable.
This episode’s unofficial sponsor, Premium European Fashion Retailers (22:47), makes its pitch to affluent buyers still splurging despite economic headwinds. The tongue-in-cheek ad highlights consumer-market bifurcation before Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon pivot to rapid-fire EMEA headlines, weighing sponsor pressure against covenant capacities across multiple sectors.
The show closes with Lightning Round EMEA (23:34), where underwhelming earnings from Altice France and Cerba collide with Merlin Entertainments’ covenant complexities. The exchange underscores how operational underperformance increasingly rules out straightforward refinancing, forcing sponsors and creditors into creative solutions. The hosts remind listeners that European credit markets operate in cycles and that aggressive tactics once considered American imports are now firmly embedded in the regional playbook.

EP 07 | Aggregate Restructuring, Prax Collapse, and Autumn Check-In

Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon open with the landmark Aggregate case (02:18), where a German court ruling has cast doubt on London’s position as Europe’s restructuring capital. What began as a standard Part 26A restructuring plan has turned into a jurisdictional battle that could reshape cross-border insolvency. A Berlin-based developer’s billion-dollar debt restructuring faces challenge from German creditor KVH, with Frankfurt courts preliminarily ruling against UK jurisdiction. Phoebe and Katie unpack the Rule in Gibbs, Brexit implications, and whether this signals the end of London’s 135-year dominance.
From there (07:19), the conversation shifts to Prax, the UK energy group that collapsed spectacularly with just £203 in its accounts. Once hailed as one of the country’s fastest-growing companies, the oil refinery operator’s sudden insolvency reveals £1.5 billion in intercompany loans, a frozen £783 million HSBC securitization facility, and owners who fled to Dubai under a £150 million asset freeze. They examine the political fallout as Energy Secretary Ed Miliband faces questions about government oversight.
The episode closes with an autumn check-in (14:30), where Phoebe and Katie swap seasonal routines, nostalgic YouTube algorithms, and personal reading goals. From McKinsey consultant sagas to Bloomberg’s Paper Soldiers and Saudi oil exposés, the exchange highlights the balance between professional insight and guilty-pleasure entertainment as markets heat up post-summer.